Estimate your retirement success rate based on your withdrawal rate, investment mix, and real-world stress scenarios using historical data-backed projections.
Based on the 4% Rule
Your Retirement Plan
Your current total investable retirement savings.
$
Percentage of your portfolio withdrawn in year 1, then adjusted for inflation each year. The classic "4% rule" suggests 4%.
How your portfolio is split between stocks (growth) and bonds (stability).
How many years your money needs to last. The traditional 4% rule assumes 30 years.
Important: Never plan based on what you think your life expectancy is going to be. Plan for 10 to 15 years beyond that. So if you think you'll live until 95, plan to about 110.
Return & Inflation Assumptions
Average annual return you expect from equities, before inflation. Historical average is ~10%, but many planners use 7–8%.
Average annual return on bonds. Typical range: 2–5%.
Average annual inflation used to adjust your withdrawals upward each year. Historical average is ~3%.
Market Crash Stress Test
Simulate a bad year for stocks to see how it impacts your plan. This tests the dangerous "sequence of returns" risk — a crash early in retirement hurts far more than one later.
Which year of retirement does the stock market drop? Early crashes are the most damaging.
How much do stocks lose? Enter as a positive number. (e.g., 30 means a 30% drop.) The 2008 crash was roughly 37%.
Skipping withdrawals in a crash year can significantly improve your portfolio's survival. This shows you the difference.
Your Retirement Outlook
Historical Success Rate (30-Year, from 4% Rule Table)
Year 1 Withdrawal
Ending Balance (Year )
Total Income Over Years
Portfolio Survives?
📉 Crash Stress Test — Year (% Stock Loss)
Ending Balance (No Crash)
Ending Balance (Crash + Withdraw)
Ending Balance (Crash + Skip Withdrawal)
Benefit of Skipping Withdrawal in Crash Year
📊 Year-by-Year Account Balances▼
Year
Withdrawal
Stocks
Bonds
Total Balance
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This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. It uses simplified projections based on the inputs and assumptions you provide and cannot guarantee future results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This does not constitute financial, tax, or investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any retirement planning decisions.