See how long your portfolio is likely to last based on your withdrawal rate and investment mix — using historical simulation data.
Customize Your Retirement Plan
The % of your portfolio you plan to withdraw in Year 1 (the classic 4% Rule uses 4%)
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Your stock-to-bond mix (e.g. 60/40 = 60% stocks, 40% bonds)
Enter your total retirement savings to see annual and monthly withdrawal amounts
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ℹ️This calculator assumes a 30-year retirement horizon, consistent with standard retirement planning guidelines and the underlying historical simulation data.
Your Results
30-Year Portfolio Success Probability
Annual Withdrawal
Monthly Withdrawal
Portfolio Needed for This Rate
Withdrawal Rate
Your Allocation vs. 60/40 Benchmark
Metric
Your Allocation ()
60/40 Benchmark
Success Rate
Range
Confidence Level
Difference
Confidence Level Guide
High Confidence (95–100%): Very likely to succeed over 30 years
Medium Confidence (40–94%): Moderate probability — consider adjusting
Low Confidence (0–39%): High risk of portfolio depletion
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Success rates are derived from historical simulation data (similar to Monte Carlo / Bengen methodology) and do not guarantee future results. Actual outcomes depend on market conditions, inflation, taxes, and individual circumstances. This is not a loan offer or financial advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any retirement planning decisions.