See how the timing of market declines dramatically impacts your retirement portfolio — even when average returns are identical.
Timing Risk Visualizer
Portfolio Parameters
Your total investable retirement savings at the start of retirement.
$
Fixed dollar amount withdrawn each year (not adjusted for inflation in this calculator).
$
How many years your money needs to last.
Tip: Plan for 10–15 years beyond your life expectancy. If you expect to live to 90, plan to 100–105.
How withdrawals work: In this calculator, withdrawals are taken at the end of each year — meaning your portfolio grows (or declines) first, then you take out your annual income. This is a common modeling approach used by financial planners.
Market Performance Scenarios
Market Decline Years
Set the loss percentage for each of the 4 consecutive decline years. These declines will be applied as a block starting in the year you choose below.
The "Early Decline" scenario starts in this year. The "Late Decline" scenario mirrors these declines toward the end of your retirement timeframe.
Early declines: Years – |
Late declines: Years –
Recovery Performance
The flat annual return applied to all years that are NOT decline years.
Sequence of Returns Analysis
Annual Withdrawal Rate
Optimal: 3.5% – 4.2%
Risk Level
Sustainability
Early Market Decline Scenario
Final Balance After Years:
Market declines occur in years – of retirement.
⚠️
Portfolio depleted in Year
That's years short of your -year plan — equivalent to
in lost retirement income.
Late Market Decline Scenario
Final Balance After Years:
Market declines occur in years – of retirement.
⚠️
Portfolio depleted in Year
That's years short of your -year plan.
Sequence of Returns Impact
Difference in Final Balance
Portfolio Balance Over Time
Early Decline
Late Decline
Year-by-Year Balance Comparison▼
Year
Early Decline
Late Decline
Difference
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. It uses simplified deterministic projections based on the inputs you provide and does not account for taxes, fees, inflation adjustments to withdrawals, or actual market variability. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This does not constitute financial, tax, or investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any retirement planning decisions.